Instead of writing about stuff that's going on today, I thought I'd take a stab at what might be--in the near future that is. I've done this before, but with a narrower focus. This is a pretty safe little excercise in prognostication since by the time 2003 becomes 2004, no one will remember a freaking word of what I said here today anyway.




Ok, here goes:

1. The LFP/Borg empire will continue to assimilate. Resistance is futile. They will continue absorbing companies into the collective. VCA might be the first assimilated into the hive in 2003, but not the last.

2. More web-porn companies will re-evaluate their cyber-arrogance and realize the so-called idiots in the traditional porn business are still making some good money the old-fashioned way. They'll decide much of the content they already possess is suitable for traditional, West Valley-style distribution, and will begin flooding the market with DVD compilations of their existing scenes.

3. Conversely, more of the old-fashioned porn companies will finally start figuring out what the web's all about and begin tailoring the content they shoot for traditional distribution for suitable web sexploitation. Hint: There's more to the web than a company site selling vids, toys, and DVDs.

4. More of the industries power-salesmen will figure out they can flex their sales-muscles for themselves. This will lead to the creation of more manufacturer's rep companies similar to the Avalon and Elite Multi-Media models.

5. More companies will offer deals of shared product ownership with directors and talent using an Evil Angel-style business model, or other profit-sharing deal. Don't confuse this with a gesture of good-will or a case of generosity, but an effect caused by Prediction #4.

6. Look for more legal prosecutions a la Max Hardcore and Seymore Butts. The L.A. District Attorney's Office will learn from their past mistakes and become more effective in said prosecutions. CYA will become the pornographer's acronym of the year. Look for a few companies to simply bail out of the business for fear of prosecution. They probably would have already done so if not for the 9/11 tragedy and its unintentional by-product of diminishing the governments resources and zeal to prosecute pornography.

7. More girls than ever before will join the talent pool either looking to be the next Jenna or hoping to find an easy way to support bad habits. Look for talent competition to be fierce and a reduction in performer's rates.

8. The pornstar escort industry will continue to thrive. Tales of girl's earning exhorbitant and absurd rates for their services will be commonplace. This will be most likely be proportionate to a decline in feature-dancer rates. Look for the term 'suitcase pimp' to become more appropriate then ever.

9. No single talent agency will dominate the business. Look for more and more talent to represent themselves. Also look for more one-man-show, agency-without-walls, type of talent reps to appear. U.S. government restrictions on entry visas will become even stricter. If you want Euro girls, you'll have to travel to Europe. Canada may become the next Hungary or Czeck Republic for shooting fresh talent--the fact that they speak English will be a big plus.

10. I know I'm going to be accused of bias with this one, but look for Smash Pictures and Digital Skin to become serious players with lots of eyes kept on them. By year's end they will become a notable force in the marketplace. They have resources and capabilities that no other newly-formed porn company (that I'm aware of) possesses. A determined and committed CEO with a proven success track record doesn't hurt either.




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